The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Montana. A state of just over 1 million people, Montana is a massive state in the Western part of the United States and is the 4th largest state in the country by area. Known for its beautiful national parks such as Yellowstone and Glacier, Montana, also known as “Big Sky Country”, attracts visitors from around the world for its beautiful natural landscapes. This beauty, and cheap taxes, has also attracted new residents from around the country, especially from nearby Western states such as California and Washington. The state has remained a solidly red state, but due to changing demographics in some cities, has elected a Democrat to one of its two Senate seats. In 2020, former President Trump won the state with 57% of the vote and the last Democrat to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1992. In 2022, there will be elections in Montana only for the House of Representatives. Montana is allocated two seats in the House, a number which increased by one after redistricting. Currently, one seat is occupied by a Republican.

House of Representatives

Montana receives two seats in the House of Representatives, and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is R+11, making Montana’s House races (taken as a whole) to be heavily favored for Republicans. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).

I. MT-01:

A. Current Representative: None (New Seat)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 85% White, 8% Native American

D. Cook PVI: R+6 (Leans Republican)

E. Outlook: Montana’s first district includes the western third of the state and many of the state’s major urban areas, including Missoula, Bozeman, and Kalispell. The seat, which was created this year due to population growth, also borders Idaho and Wyoming. The favorite to win the seat is Republican nominee Ryan Zinke, who was the US Secretary of the Interior under former President Trump. Although the district is far more competitive, than its counterpart, the growth of the liberal-leaning cities has not put this district in play for Democrats yet. Republican candidates earned around 30,000 more votes than Democratic candidates in the district’s closed primaries, and former President Trump would have carried this district by 7% in 2020.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)

II. MT-02:

A. Current Representative: Matt Rosendale (R)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 81% White, 11% Native American

D. Cook PVI: R+16 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Montana second district is a massive district which includes around two-thirds of the state’s area. Included in the district is the state capital of Helena, as well as the largest city in the state, Billings, and the city of Great Falls. The district shares borders with Wyoming and the Dakotas. Incumbent Rep. Rosendale has represented the district since 2020, when he was elected with 56% of the vote. His district was made less competitive due to redistricting, and Republicans earned 3x more votes than Democrats in the district’s primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)

Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Montana will lead to one gain for the Republicans.

Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Montana. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Nebraska, a rural Midwestern state, where Republicans are looking to continue their sweep of that state’s three House seats.